3.57pm: Our reporter Adam Gabbatt has been visiting one of the Rick Perry bases in Iowa, at the Sheraton Hotel, a big concrete cube just off the freeway in West Des Moines.
In the lobby, "Perry for president" fleeces and rich Texan drawls abound. The Perry team has hired two large rooms on the ground floor, with one set aside for supporters to canvas support by telephone.
In front of each chair is a black mobile phone ? imagine the bills ? with a sheet of registered Republicans to work through and a list of questions to ask should someone take the unfortunate step of picking up.
At 2pm on the day of the caucus there were less than ten people bashing the phones, but many more manning computers in the lobby or setting off to plant Perry signs around the area.
Few supporters come more loyal than 17-year-old Reagan Ashley, who sold pro-Perry posters to raise money to fly from Harlingen, Texas and has been campaigning in Iowa since 28 December.
Ashley, who made the journey with 15-year-old sister Miranda and mum Renda, said he got into politics after Obama's election, and cited Perry's record on job creation as one of the main reasons for backing him .
Ashley thinks Perry will finish in the top four in Iowa ? the polls disagree ? and says the Texan can still win he nomination.
Aside from the other presidential candidates, however, Perry may find he has a threat within his own camp. Ashley is planning to follow in Perry's footsteps by going to Texas A&M, before studying political science "with economics and some philosophy" (Perry graduated in animal science) at the conservative Hillsdale College.
After that? "I'll become a Texas legislator, then probably eventually governor."
3.52pm: The Democrats are caucusing in Iowa tonight, too, although their candidate, Barack Obama, is unsurprisingly standing unopposed. As Radio Iowa reports, he has not exactly been absent from the state.
The presidential candidate with the most aggressive campaign operation in Iowa over the past year may have been President Obama, with eight offices operating around the state and a turn-out plan for tonight's Democratic Caucuses to lay the groundwork for the November election. Iowa is likely to be one of those so-called "battleground" or "swing" states in the general election, meaning Obama and whomever Republicans nominate to run against him will be spending time campaigning here as the November election draws near.
3.39pm: It's probably a bit late to make Rick Perry look presidential now, but that hasn't stopped his campaign team, which has put out this feelgood film on Caucus day to get the vote out. Don't miss the swelling chords, reminiscent of the West Wing theme...
Source: RickPerry.org 3.23pm: More on the format of the Iowa caucuses that Richard mentioned earlier at 1.45pm. Most are held in large, community venues like schools and churches ? but a few are in people's front rooms.
The New York Times's Caucus blog (which, confusingly, isn't usually a blog about caucuses) has been speaking to some of those who host caususes in their homes: "Sometimes it's just my wife and I," Art Joens of Manilla told the NYT. "if we have a half a dozen it'll be a good crowd."
Also quoted is Sharon McNutt, who will host a caucus at their home in Silver City, Iowa:
Mrs McNutt, who will provide coffee and cookies for those who attend and will count votes in a Frosty the Snowman tophat, appreciates the more conversational atmosphere of her house, as opposed to the more austere setting of a public building.
"I think there are more hugs, people are warmer," she said. "Some people tend to linger and talk about other things. It's a good community time, they don't feel a rush to get out of here because it's a home."
2.58pm: Newt Gingrich is angry. All those attack ads! He's so angry that he's going to hurl this ice cream at the photographer.
Newt Gingrich with his wife Callista as he buys two scoops of "Moose Tracks" ice cream at Elly's Tea and Coffee House in Muscatine, Iowa. Photograph: Charles Dharapak/AP 2.50pm: This is Matt Wells taking over from Richard Adams, who will be back later when some actual news is likey to happen.
Meanwhile, our correspondent Ewen MacAskill has called in at La Mie bakery in Des Moines for some sustenance before a Rick Santorum event.
Button badges for Santorum and Perry selling at three for $5. Romney button badges going for $10 for three. Is this a reflection on his time as a businessman, his commitment to capitalism or just a button-seller who thinks Romney supporters have more money?
No reports on the donuts, though.
2pm: Finally, after suffering a million-dollar blitz of negative ads from a Mitt Romney-supporting political action committee [Pac], Newt Gingrich drops the L-word on Romney.
Speaking to Norah O'Donnell on CBS's Early Show this morning, Gingrich went nuclear. Let's roll the tape:
Norah O'Donnell: You scolded Mitt Romney, his friends who are running this super Pac that has funded [the attack ads]. And you said of Mitt Romney, "Somebody who will lie to you to get to be president will lie to you when they are president."
I have to ask you: Are you calling Mitt Romney a liar?
Newt Gingrich: Yes.
O'Donnell: You're calling Mitt Romney a liar?
Gingrich: Well, you seem shocked by it. Yes. I mean, what else could you say?
O'Donnell: Why are you saying he's a liar?
Gingrich: This is a man whose staff created the Pac. His millionaire friends fund the Pac. He pretends he has nothing to do with the Pac. It's baloney. He's not telling the American people the truth. It's just like his pretense that he's a conservative.
Here's a Massachusetts moderate who has tax-paid abortions in Romneycare; puts Planned Parenthood in Romneycare; raises hundreds of millions of dollars of taxes on businesses; appoints liberal judges to appease Democrats; and wants the rest of us to believe somehow he's magically a conservative.
I just think he ought to be honest with the American people and try to win as the real Mitt Romney, not try to invent a poll-driven consultant-guided version that goes around with talking points.
So tell us what you really think Mr Gingrich?
1.45pm: How do the Iowa caucuses work? Univision News has this useful explanation from the horse's mouth ? the horse in this case being Iowa Republican party chairman Matt Strawn:
Once the meeting is called, the first thing that's generally done is that each presidential campaign has the opportunity to have a representative speak on their behalf. And usually it's someone who comes from that precinct and lives in that community. When you have two out of every five voters who can still be persuaded to switch, it is crucial who a candidate has stand up for him to make that final close.
So after a two to three minute speech by a representative, then you actually go to the vote. We have a secret ballot in the Republican caucus and in my particular precinct, you have a slip of paper, you simply write the surname of your preferred presidential candidate, drop it in the ballot box that's passed around the room, and then the votes are actually counted right there in the room, in the open. The campaigns have someone who's able to observe the counting, so it's probably as transparent and open an election you can get.
Those results are reported to the entire room then called into Republican headquarters, where my staff will tabulate 1,774 different precincts, we'll aggregate it together, then we'll simply report the raw vote total that happened all across the state Tuesday night. And those are the results for the Iowa caucus.
And then we all go to New Hampshire, the end.
1.35pm: No matter who wins the GOP caucuses in Iowa tonight, is Barack Obama the real winner?
Buzzfeed Politics, the new kid on the political media block, talks to the Obama campaign's pollster Joel Benenson, who sees the hapless Republican effort in Iowa as being a net gain for the president's re-election chances:
The reality is that there's a lot less enthusiasm for this field than people may have touted. This is a field where every candidate comes with significant flaws in terms of the general election, in terms of their economic values, in terms of their extreme positions, in terms being under the influence of the Tea Party.
1.25pm: Twitterati will be interested in this tool from the Washington Post: @mentionmachine, designed to track the social media's impact on the 2012 presidential candidates.
1.04pm: The GOP presidential candidates have compared themselves to Ronald Reagan, Abraham Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt. (Newt Gingrich even talks up his "partnership" with Bill Clinton.) But one two-term Republican president doesn't seem to get mentioned much: George Bush*.
Apparently not, based on the GOP candidates in Iowa The Associated Press's Beth Fouhy asks: Where's George?
The eight-year Bush presidency has merited no more than a fleeting reference in televised debates and interviews. When it does surface it's often a point of criticism, as when former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum told CNN on Sunday that he regretted voting for the No Child Left Behind education law Bush championed.
The former president himself has been all but invisible since leaving office in 2009 with a Gallup approval rating of just 34%. His predecessor, Democrat Bill Clinton, had a 66% approval rating in early 2001 when he stepped down after two terms marred by a sex scandal and impeachment.
Certainly, while candidates might be panting for the endorsement of Sarah Palin or even a nobody such as Herman Cain, none of them seems to be interested in Bush's backing.
*Historical footnote: George W Bush was America's 43rd president, first elected in 2000.
12.49pm: The Guardian's Adam Gabbatt is at the "Rock the Caucus" event in West Des Moines today and hears several of the candidates make a pitch for the yoof vote:
At Valley High School in Wes Des Moines around 400 high school seniors had packed into the school's gym as part of a Rock the Caucus initiative - a bid to engage young people in politics.
They were treated to three presidential candidates and a variety of attempts to appeal to the younger generation.
First up, Michele Bachmann, who spoke of her Iowan upbringing and parents' divorce before going nuclear and pulling out her iPhone: "Who's got one of these?"
The lukewarm response to Bachmann carried over as "Romney's boys" took to the stage, Tagg Romney seemingly attempting to get down with the kids by embarrassing his father, ending an anecdote about Mitt building a fence by saying he learned the current Republican front-runner was "extraordinarily cheap. He is the cheapest person you could ever meet."
The joshing was tempered by Tagg saying if his dad becomes president: "He'll never do anything to embarrass you."
Rick Santorum was on next, urging students to scrutinise their choice of candidate closely: "You have a tough choice to make."
Santorum harked back to his own childhood, saying he was from a family of immigrants whose grandfather came to the US "because he was not a fan of fascism and Mussolini".
The former Pennsylvania senator left the stage to loud cheers, with three students waving Santorum signs, but the loudest applause was reserved for Ron Paul, who has a large following among young people.
Paul began cryptically by asking his crowd: "Does anybody here know the name Kelly Clarkson?" which muted the crowd somewhat ? the one-time American Idol star endorsed Paul two weeks ago ? before trying to reason why so many youngsters were supporting him.
The conclusion? He endorses the constitution and "sticks to his principles".
Paul stuck to basics, criticising the bank bailout and handling of the financial crisis, relating the economy to the increasing cost of college education the high school students face.
Paul left to loud applause, with a small group following him to his car and a 20 strong group of older supporters awaiting him with signs and cheering.
Kelly Clarkson won American Idol back in 2002, when most of these students were like nine years old. Ancient history, Ron Paul.
Adam also shot this video of Ron Paul supporters outside the high school venue today, including this dialogue in which a Paulista channels Andy Dwyer from Parks and Recreation:
Q: Why are you such an ardent supporter of Ron Paul?
A: Because he's awesome.
12.30pm: Pollsters Gallup say that this year's GOP primary campaign has been unusually volatile for the Republican party, which is traditionally more stable than the Democratic party in such matters.
The old joke in US politics is "Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line". But not this year, not so far anyway, says Gallup:
Historical comparisons of primaries can be problematic given differences in the number of candidates and number of poll conducted each election. It seems clear, however, that this phase of the 2012 Republican nomination process has been the most volatile for the GOP since the advent of polling.
Even so, the Republican switches in the lead still lag behind the Democratic party's six front-runners in the 2003-04 primary campaign season.
12.15pm: Hey it's Herman Cain on Fox News. He's still not endorsing anyone: "Whoever gets the Republican nomination, I will actively support," says Herman. Even Mitt Romney.
Here's the good news: "Probably because of my biological clock, I'm ruling out running for president" again, says Cain. Also: "I do not want a ceremonial position in anyone's cabinet."
11.50am: Chris Moody, political reporter for Yahoo! News, is at the "Rock the Caucus" high school event in West Des Moines, and tweets this disturbing news:
Big faced, ok, but "kind of hot"? Let's hope they don't Google "Santorum" to find out more.
11.37am: Filmmaker Kat Keene Hogue and the Guardian in America interactive team have posted this fascinating video of Iowa voters explaining how they make up their minds.
Watch it. It's a relatively unedited insight into what actual Iowans are thinking.
11.18am: Heard enough about Iowa? Well think again, thanks to this awesome Iowa hipster video doing the rounds:
Warning: is a bit NSFW because of the HBO-like swearing. Here is the non-swearing bleeped-out version.
11am: The Guardian's Adam Gabbatt is already out and about in Iowa hunting for news ? and finds that Ron Paul's famous army of grassroots supporters have got there before him in the freezing first light of an Iowan dawn:
Driving west from Des Moines this morning the only visible sign that it's caucus day was the sight of a small group of Ron Paul supporters shivering at the side of Martin Luther King Jr Parkway.
Justin Yoursion, precinct captain for West Des Moines 313, said the group of six people ? split either side of the busy main road ? had been there since 7am CT. At 9am the gang were getting regular honks from drivers, with some stopping to ask questions about Paul's policies.
Yoursion said it was "hard to say" how many would turn out to his caucus at Valley Southwards High School tonight, but said: "I assume over 100."
"They predicted we need over 111 to win our precinct," he said, adding that his precinct was expected to be a straight battle between Romney and Paul, as it is "a wealthy area".
Nick Stiles was sign-waving alongside Yoursion, and said he would be involved in driving people to caucuses tonight. "I did it four ago, drove about four or five people," he said.
Stiles said he will receive calls from Ron Paul's headquarters from 5pm onwards, asking him to collect supporters. "There's a lot of young people ? people that don't have cars."
Adam reports that Paul really does have a large number of young supporters: "I can confirm having briefly visited his HQ east of Des Moines yesterday, where most of the 20 or so hammering the phones looked under 30."
Ron Paul supporters on caucus day in Iowa. Photograph: Adam Gabbatt/Guardian Personally, I would pay good money to hear a losing Romney staff member say something like: "And we would have got away with it too, if it hadn't been for those pesky kids."
10.30am: What the papers say, Iowa caucus edition.
? Iowa Caucus Final Poll Snapshot: Close But Romney's Ahead ? Huffington Post
HuffPost polls geek Mark Blumenthal looks at the final polling data and sees that Mitt Romney leads Ron Paul by a slim margin, followed by Rick Santorum.
? Mitt Romney heckled at his final rally before Iowa caucuses ? Guardian
Ewen MacAskill's colourful round-up of the final day of campaigning.
? Iowa Race Down to the Wire ? Wall Street Journal
The WSJ reaches into the big bag of Iowa cliches.
? Frenetic Push as Campaign in Iowa Ends ? New York Times
Luckily there are some cliches left over for the NYT's headline writers
? Santorum's Opportunity: Working-Class Republicans ? National Journal
Ron Brownstein is perhaps the smartest political journalist in America (now there's a backhanded compliment) and this piece argues that Rick Santorum could tap a vein of Republican populism:
The growing blue-collar presence in the Republican primary could offer Santorum a base from which to challenge Romney because the former Massachusetts governor has not demonstrated a consistent appeal to those voters.
? Primaries may be messy, but they make candidates stronger ? Boston Globe
John Sununu, the former Republican senator from New Hampshire and Mitt Romney booster, writes an illuminating op-ed piece on the meaninglessness of Iowa:
Iowa has never been a good indicator of the eventual Republican nominee. For candidates like Pat Robertson and Mike Huckabee, the shine from their caucus successes faded fast, but for the political media, the predictable unpredictability of Iowa is good for business.
10.18am: Here's edited highlights of the candidates' movements in Iowa today. (The campaigns are keeping their schedules close to their chests in order to avoid tipping off their opponents.)
Mitt Romney
This morning: Held a rally at the Temple For Performing Arts in Des Moines
This evening: Holds a caucus night event at Hotel Fort Des Moines, Des Moines
Rick Santorum
This morning: Addresses 800 caucus-eligible juniors and seniors at a "Rock the Caucus" assembly, West Des Moines
This evening: Hosts Iowa Caucus Night Victory Party, Stoney Creek Inn, Johnston
Ron Paul
This morning: Addresses 800 caucus-eligible juniors and seniors at a "Rock the Caucus" assembly, West Des Moines
This evening: Holds Iowa Caucuses night event, Courtyard Des Moines Ankeny
Newt Gingrich
This morning: Visits Elly's Tea, Muscatine.
This afternoon: Visits Drake Restaurant, Burlington
This evening: Speaks at Black Hawk County Caucus, Cedar Falls
Rick Perry
This morning: Attends Iowa Caucus Training event, West Des Moines Sheraton
This afternoon: Holds town hall at Principal Financial Group and Nationwide/Allied Insurance, Des Moines
This evening: Holds caucus night event, Sheraton West Des Moines Hotel
Michele Bachmann
This morning: addresses 800 caucus-eligible juniors and seniors at a "Rock the Caucus" assembly, West Des Moines
This evening: Speaks at Black Hawk County Caucus Super-Site, Cedar Falls, and holds caucus night event. West Des Moines Marriott
Not in Iowa: Jon Huntsman campaigning in New Hampshire this morning. Photograph: Matt Rourke/AP Oh and Jon Huntsman is rattling around in New Hampshire. But no one cares until about 7am tomorrow.
Good morning and welcome to our live coverage of the final hours of campaigning before the 2012 Iowa Republican caucuses ? as Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum make a final bid to win over undecided voters.
With just under 10 hours until the caucus actually start, the six candidates in Iowa are holding rallies and get-out-the-vote pushes to ensure that their committed supporters actually find their way to their caucus sites in time for kick-off at 8pm ET (1am GMT).
The Guardian has reporters on the ground in the Hawkeye State, watching the final spurts of campaigning. We'll be covering all the final twitches of activity ? with Newt Gingrich already preparing a last-minute assault on Mitt Romney ? right here.
Later this evening we'll be live blogging the caucus results as they come in ? with a winner possibly being named around 10pm or 11pm ET.
Mitt Romney speaks at a campaign event in Iowa last night. Photograph: Charlie Riedel/AP In the meantime stayed tuned ? and don't forget to enter our Iowa Caucus Forecast competition: choose the order that the seven main candidates finish in, and win so-called prizes.
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/richard-adams-blog/2012/jan/03/iowa-caucus-2012-gop-live
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